Parallel Universe

Wall Street predicts 'Catching Fire' will 'be biggest movie of 2013'

It's possible, but there will be stiff competition

By Myriam Gabriel-Pollock Jan 7, 2013 1:50PM
According to Forbes, Wall Street predicts that "The Hunger Games:  Catching Fire" will be "the biggest movie of the year."  That, on top of Fandango's announcement that it was voted "The Most Anticipated Blockbuster" of 2013, puts some major pressure on the second installation of this franchise.

Will it perform as well as, or even surpass, "The Hunger Games"?

Although "The Hunger Games" had a domestic gross of $408M, it's overseas gross was only $278.5M, bringing its worldwide grosses to $686.5M.  That is an impressive profit margin when you consider that the movie had a $78M production budget. 

Bing: More about 'The Hunger Games' | More about 'Catching Fire'

But compared to that other mega teen franchise, "The Twilight Saga," it is evident that "The Hunger Games'' overseas audience is not as strong as its home audience.  Not yet, at least.

As an example, let's compare the numbers to the highest domestic-grossing "Twilight" movie, "Eclipse"—it had a $300.5M domestic gross, but $398M overseas.  The numbers for the last installment, "Breaking Dawn, Part 2," are even more astonishing:  $289.2M domestic, but a whopping $524.7M overseas, for a worldwide gross of $813.9M. 

Forbes seems to agree:

"I think Catching Fire is going to be huge in the U.S. but when you take the international box office into account, the film will struggle to be the top grossing of 2013. The first 'Hunger Games' movie was the only film of the ten highest-grossing at the global box office that earned less overseas than it did in the U.S. Only 40% of 'The Hunger Games' $687 million came from outside of the U.S. Compare that to 'The Avengers,' the highest-grossing film of 2012 with $1.5 billion at the global box office. Sixty percent of that film’s gross came from overseas.... Unless 'Catching Fire' suddenly catapults the 'Hunger Games' movies to greater popularity overseas, the film will struggle to top the box office for the year."

There will be serious competition at the box office in 2013, with many movies that appeal to the geeks and teens:  "Iron Man 3," "Man of Steel," "Star Trek Into Darkness" and the second "Hobbit" film.  It's going to be a fantastic year of movies!

Share your thoughts in the comments.

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20Comments
Jan 8, 2013 9:46AM
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Read the books...that's my best advice.  Each one gets more intense and involved and you'll get more details than the movies will provide (they can't capture  Every tiny detail!).  By the time Mockingjay comes out (2015, I think) people should be caught up in the craze.  Jennifer Lawrence is an extremely gifted actress.  Are they even totalling in the sales of the movies, and the rentals before the sales?  Suzanne Collins wrote a terrific series, and I hope she has some ideas for a follow-up.  I hope I hope I hope.   I'm in my early 50's and love reading...anything!  (ingredients on the back of a can if nothing else is available...LOL).  My kiddo started archery  about 6 years ago but gave it up.  After Hunger Games she wanted to begin again (and then she saw a couple of the "Revolution" shows on TV, which hardened her resolve).  Europeans think Americans are cushy...they have no idea...:D
Jan 8, 2013 2:35PM
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I did not like the premise behind The Hunger Games when it came out, and didn't go see it in the theater.  I decided to watch it on an in-flight dvd player on a long flight and was instantly hooked.  I bought Catching Fire and Mockingjay as soon as I returned home and read them both back to back.  Even though I already know how the series ends, I can't wait to see both films!!  I'm not sure it will out-gross The Hobbit's second part, which was far better than the Lord of the Rings series (IMHO) or Iron Man 3, but I'm sure it will do very, very well at the box office. 
Jan 8, 2013 3:42PM
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Before Avengers, I would have said that maybe Hunger Games edges out Iron Man 3.  I think Iron Man will take the crown this year mainly because a lot of people are going to want to see the begining of the Phase 2 movies that will lead up to Avengers 2.  Superman could be a little bit of a sleeper, some are skeptical that another reboot is coming out so soon after the dissapointing Superman Returns.  If word of mouth is good on Superman it could take the top spot. 

 

Either way, you're most likely looking at the top 5 movies of the year moneywise. 

 

Jan 8, 2013 2:17PM
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Nik...you wouldn't like the LaHaye/Jenkins "Left Behind" series either, although it deals with the end of times and what people do to survive when the antichrist shows up.  HG is simply about an apocalyptic world.  And I don't think we're "cavalier" about violence...or did you think the recent Newtown tragedy was just passe?
Jan 8, 2013 2:08PM
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I disagree with the prediction. Iron Man III will edge out the second movie of the "hunger Games".
Jan 8, 2013 2:17PM
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Really? More anticipated than Hobbit or Star Trek or Superman? I really liked the books and thought the movie was pretty good but I am much more interested in the Hobbit or Star Trek than Catching Fire. I'll definitely see it if I had to choose only one movie to see this year I would choose Star Trek or the Hobbit.
Jan 8, 2013 10:06AM
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I teach the fundamentals of target archery (compound bow style) Since "Hunger Games", I'm receiving many inquiries from women, young and older, about archery lessons.  Outstanding!
Target only, I've been shooting from age 14.
Jan 8, 2013 7:32PM
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This is for Argaenei...

 

Cavalier was a poor choice of word to use in reference to our country's additude towards violence and no, there was certainly nothing passe about Newtown. But with our penchant for violent films, video games, the number of assault weapons on our streets and the battle to get rid of them, I would have to say that America doesn't really care as much about violence as they say they do (even after a horrific tragedy that we tend to move on from in just a few weeks time). If we really were as bothered by violence as we claim, we would make it illegal in this country to own a weapon of war because in reality, no one needs one. For anything. Except to commit mass murder. Were not cavalier about violence but were not impassioned enough about it to really do anything to fix it. Not yet anyway. And if the slaughter of 20 babies isn't going to do it, then what is?  

Jan 8, 2013 2:31PM
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Man of Steel will be the biggest movie this summer! Really don't know what all the fuss is about. I watched The Hunger Games with my son and I thought I was watching a B movie. I did not think the film was very good and my 11 year old son wasnt impressed.
Jan 8, 2013 2:27PM
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These people that are making this prediction know nothing about movies and what people watch.

Iron Man 3, Epic, Man of Steel, The Hobbit:DoS and Star Trek Into Darkness will all be larger hits than any Hunger Games crap that comes out.

Jan 8, 2013 12:50PM
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I have heard so much about how well written these books are and how terrific the first film was, but...I just couldn't get past the premise of children slaughtering children...for any reason and therefore, I have not partaken of THG. I don't disparage others for reading and watching, but this "type" of violence just doesn't peak my interest. If anyone can convince me to give it a go (and more than a few of my friends have tried), I'm open to persuasion. What is so amazing about this story that I should find the murder of children entertaining? Someone please enlighten me.

 

P.S. With our cavalier additude towards violence in our society, I'm not surprised this story has done better in America than overseas. 

Jan 8, 2013 10:12AM
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now we need "wall st." {not capitalized by choice} to pick block buster movies , really , are they bored with cooking the books ?
Jan 8, 2013 12:24PM
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Hunger Games really irritated me. I hated how it made the "good guys" all Little House on the Prairie wholesome goodness and the "bad guys" into snotty drag queens, in a word, gay. This movie was homophobic and I won't be seeing another one. Blech!
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