Predicting the winners of FOX's American Country Awards

The fans will be in control when the third annual American Country Awards are handed out Dec. 10 from 8-10 p.m. (ET) on FOX. Unlike most country awards shows, this one is totally fan-voted, something that can make for some fun surprises on show night. Luke Bryan tops the nominees with nods in seven categories. Following close behind with six nominations each are Lady Antebellum and the Zac Brown Band, along with five-time nominees Jason Aldean, Eric Church and Taylor Swift. Trace Adkins and Kristin Chenoweth will return as hosts.

 

During the show, airing live from the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, awards will be handed out in a whopping 21 categories, Here are our predicted winners.

 

Artist of the Year

Jason Aldean

Luke Bryan

Lady Antebellum    

Taylor Swift

Zac Brown Band

 

Will win: Taylor Swift

This one will come down to a race between Swift and Aldean, although Bryan’s fans will make a strong showing. Both Swift and Aldean released top-selling albums this fall, and Aldean also mounted a major tour this year while Swift took a little time off from the road. But Swift’s massive visibility in recent months, coupled with the well-orchestrated excitement surrounding her international smash album, “Red,” will ensure a hands-down victory here.

 

Artist of the Year: Male

Jason Aldean

Luke Bryan

Kenny Chesney

Eric Church

Toby Keith

 

Will win: Jason Aldean

This is one of the most competitive categories, with all five nominees amply earning their spot. Church was unfairly snubbed in the overall artist of the year category, and he’ll be a strong contender here, as will Bryan. Chesney mounted a major stadium tour with Tim McGraw this summer, and both he and Keith released new albums this year. Ultimately, however, Aldean’s fans will prevail on behalf of their Georgia-bred star.

 

Artist of the Year: Female

Sara Evans

Miranda Lambert

Martina McBride

Taylor Swift  

Carrie Underwood

 

Will win: Taylor Swift

It’s a race among Swift and Underwood, who each released new albums this year, and Lambert, who did not. Underwood’s album was a success, and she’s currently in the midst of a major tour, but none of that will be enough to face down Swift’s current career momentum.

 

Artist of the Year: Group

The Band Perry

Eli Young Band

Lady Antebellum

Rascal Flatts

Zac Brown Band

 

Will win: Lady Antebellum

This could be anyone’s race, but with the Zac Brown Band and Lady Antebellum each having such a strong showing in the overall nominations (with six apiece), it’s clear both bands have a vocal fan base which could help them take home the win. Their visibility surrounding a new holiday album and concert DVD will likely give Lady A the edge.

 

Artist of the Year: Breakthrough Artist

Lee Brice

Colt Ford

Gloriana

Justin Moore

Jake Owen

 

Will win: Jake Owen

A handful of No. 1 hits and a headlining spot on this fall’s CMT tour, not to mention a high-profile wedding and a new baby girl born last month, all combine to make Owen the best-known act among this talented group. Plus, having charted his first singles in 2006, Owen is long overdue for earning “breakthrough” status.

 

Artist of the Year: New Artist

Lauren Alaina

Hunter Hayes

Jana Kramer

Kip Moore

Pistol Annies

 

Will win: Hunter Hayes

Let’s face it, the young women who cast most of the votes in these kinds of awards shows simply can’t get enough of the fresh-faced, 21-year-old Hayes, and his recent No. 1 hit, “Wanted.” Plus, his opening spot on the Carrie Underwood tour is earning the talented newcomer even more new fans every weekend.

 

Album of the Year

Dierks Bentley, “Home”

Luke Bryan, “tailgates & tanlines”

Eric Church, “Chief”

Lady Antebellum, “Own the Night”

Blake Shelton, “Red River Blue”

 

Will win: Luke Bryan, “tailgates & tanlines”

There are better albums in the bunch, specifically Church’s excellent “Chief,” but in trying to predict the tastes of ACA Awards voters, who tend to reward the “hot guy” factor, Bryan’s project seems like the one they’re most likely to choose. For sheer fun and enjoyment, it’s not a bad choice. Shelton is a dark horse here, and his high visibility on NBC’s “The Voice” could push fans in the direction of his album.

 

Single of the Year

Jason Aldean, “Tattoos On This Town”

Luke Bryan, “I Don’t Want This Night To End”

Eric Church, “Drink In My Hand”

Chris Young, “You”

Zac Brown Band, “Keep Me In Mind”

 

Will win: Eric Church, “Drink In My Hand”

Aldean, Bryan and Church are the leading contenders here, but Church’s “Drink In My Hand” got the party started about a million times coast-to-coast this year. The song’s combination of cool swagger and frat boy sensibility will make it hard to beat.

 

Single of the Year: Male

Jason Aldean, “Tattoos On This Town”

Luke Bryan, “I Don’t Want This Night To End”

Kenny Chesney, “Reality”

Eric Church, “Drink In My Hand”

Chris Young, “You”

 

Will win: Eric Church, “Drink In My Hand”

The ACAs could probably just dispense with this category since the nominees are identical to those in the overall single of the year category with the exception of Chesney subbing for Chris Young. The outcome will also be the same; unless fans deliberately try to spread the love a bit, in which case they’re likely to choose Bryan here.

 

Single of the Year: Female

Sara Evans, “My Heart Can’t Tell You No”

Miranda Lambert, “Over You”

Martina McBride, “I’m Gonna Love You Through It”

Taylor Swift, “Ours”

Carrie Underwood, “Good Girl”

 

Will win: Miranda Lambert, “Over You”

This emotional ballad was written by Lambert and husband Blake Shelton about the death of Shelton’s brother. It was a big hit for Lambert, and got some extra visibility among non-country fans last month when it was covered by “The Voice” contestant Cassadee Pope. Its' only competition here comes from Swift and Underwood, but their songs didn’t pack the emotional wallop of “Over You.”

 

Single of the Year: Group

Eli Young Band, “Even If It Breaks Your Heart”

Lady Antebellum, “We Owned The Night”

Rascal Flatts, “Banjo”

The Band Perry, “All Your Life”

Zac Brown Band, “Keep Me In Mind”

 

Will win: Lady Antebellum, “We Owned The Night”

This Lady A hit earned the most mainstream success among this group of nominees and is a clear winner here. Sadly, there are no runner-ups in awards shows, but if that happened, we’d hope ACA voters would also recognize the Eli Young Band for its inspirational breakthrough single.

 

Single of the Year: New Artist

Hunter Hayes, “Wanted”

Jana Kramer, “Why Ya Wanna”

Dustin Lynch, “Cowboys and Angels”

Kip Moore, “Somethin’ ’Bout A Truck”

The Farm, “Home Sweet Home”

 

Will win: Hunter Hayes, “Wanted”

All of the nominees with the exception of The Farm were big hits this year, but Hunter Hayes’ love ballad “Wanted” is the most likely to strike a chord with ACA voters. It’s worth noting that if this diverse batch of talented nominees is the future of country music, the format’s future looks bright.

 

Single of the Year: Breakthrough Artist

Lee Brice, “A Woman Like You"

Brantley Gilbert, “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do”

Gloriana, “(Kissed You) Good Night”

David Nail, “Let It Rain”

Jake Owen, “Alone With You”

 

Will win: Jake Owen, “Alone With You”

Five years into his career, Brice deserves every “breakthrough” designation that is finally coming his way. Gilbert also had a phenomenal year, and much success with this single, but Owen has name brand recognition at this point among even casual country music fans, and he’s likely to prevail here.

 

Single of the Year: Vocal Collaboration

Kix Brooks featuring Joe Walsh, “New To This Town”

Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw, “Feel Like A Rock Star”

Brad Paisley featuring Carrie Underwood, “Remind Me”

Rascal Flatts featuring Natasha Bedingfield, “Easy”

Zac Brown Band featuring Jimmy Buffett, “Knee Deep”

 

Will win: Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw, “Feel Like A Rock Star”

Yes, it’s the worst song in the bunch, and blew up the charts fast then faded quickly at radio. Still, the Chesney/McGraw song did have the feel of an “event” record, and served as the intro for their very successful summer stadium tour together. In a more perfect world, ACA voters would be rewarding Paisley and Underwood for their terrific duet instead.

 

Touring Artist of the Year

Jason Aldean

Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw

Eric Church

Toby Keith

Lady Antebellum

Miranda Lambert    

Brad Paisley

Rascal Flatts

Taylor Swift

Zac Brown Band

 

Will win: Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw

With a whopping 10 nominees to choose from, this category is difficult to predict, although we can strip Swift off the list immediately since she did not tour in 2012. Aldean and Church topped even their own touring expectations this year and will be strong contenders here. Lady A and Rascal Flatts had so much success on their respective outings that each band released a concert DVDs this fall. But it’s impossible to overlook the touring juggernaut that was the Chesney/McGraw stadium tour, not to mention that fact that having two artists nominated together here could double their votes.

 

Music Video of the Year

Luke Bryan, “I Don’t Want This Night To End”

Jake Owen, “Alone With You”

Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”

Keith Urban, “For You”

Chris Young, “You”

 

Will win: Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”

With 15 million views on YouTube alone, Shelton has the most-watched among the candidates here, although Bryan is not far behind with 12 million views for “I Don’t Want This Night To End.” The other three nominees each have fewer than five million views.

 

Music Video of the Year: Male

Luke Bryan, “I Don’t Want This Night to End”

Jake Owen, “Alone With You”

Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”

Keith Urban, “For You”

Chris Young, “You”

 

Will win: Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”

This is the exact same field of candidates as in the overall music video of the year category, and the outcome will be the same as well. Bryan should get honorable mention here for ambitiously creating an ongoing story line that ran through a few of his clips. Urban’s moving “For You,” from the “Act Of Valor” movie soundtrack, also deserves special mention.

 

Music Video of the Year: Female

Sara Evans, “My Heart Can’t Tell You No”

Miranda Lambert, “Over You” 6.6M

Martina McBride, “I’m Gonna Love You Through It”

Taylor Swift, “Ours”

Carrie Underwood, “Good Girl”

 

Will win: Taylor Swift, “Ours”

Swift’s more recent clip for “We Are Never, Ever Getting Back Together” was more clever, but this sweet video starring “Friday Night Lights” actor Zach Gilford included a surprise ending that set Swift’s character up as a military spouse or girlfriend. “Ours” has been viewed on YouTube 11.6 million times to date, smoking the competition in this category by a wide margin.

 

Music Video of the Year: Group or Collaboration

Gloriana, “(Kissed You) Good Night”

Lady Antebellum, “Dancin’ Away With My Heart”

Little Big Town, “Pontoon”      

Love and Theft, “Angel Eyes”

The Band Perry, “All Your Life”

 

Will win: Little Big Town, “Pontoon”

Little Big Town will be making waves and catching rays when the winner is announced in this category, for which they are a clear favorite with their ubiquitous song of the summer, “Pontoon,” which has notched nine million YouTube views to date. The Band Perry’s traveling circus-themed spectacle, “All Your Life,” is the strongest competition, and has six million YouTube views.

 

Music Video of the Year: New Artist

Hunter Hayes, “Wanted”

Casey James, “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night”

Jana Kramer, “Why You Wanna”

Dustin Lynch, “Cowboys and Angels”

Kip Moore, “Somethin’ ’Bout A Truck”

 

Will win: Hunter Hayes, “Wanted”

If you’re not Hunter Hayes in this category, you can just pack up and go home. “Wanted” has been viewed on YouTube an incredible 20.6 million times, an astonishing figure for any artist, let alone a new one. Moore’s “Somethin' 'Bout A Truck” is the next closest competitor with nearly 12 million views. Singer/actress Kramer has notched an impressive nine million for her debut video.

 

Song of the Year

• “A Woman Like You,” performed by Lee Brice (writers: Phil Barton, Johnny Bulford, Jon Stone)

• “Fly Over States,” performed by Jason Aldean (Michael Dulaney, Neil Thrasher)

• “Red Solo Cup,” performed by Toby Keith (Brett Beavers, Jim Beavers, Brad Warren, Brett Warren)

• “Springsteen,” performed by Eric Church (Eric Church, Jeff Hyde, Ryan Tyndell)

• “Tattoos On This Town,” performed by Jason Aldean (Michael Dulaney, Wendell Mobley, Neil Thrasher)

 

Will win: “Red Solo Cup”

This category is new this year. The professional members of Nashville Songwriters Assn. International (NSAI) determined an initial list of 10 nominees, and it was whittled down to these final five by fan votes. If the NSAI members were making the final determination, it would go to something meatier like “Springsteen” or “Fly Over States.” But with the fans in charge, it’s the goofy and unforgettable earworm “Red Solo Cup” all the way.